Nuclear Resurgence
Historically, economic growth has meant rising energy usage, but in mature economies such as the U.S., energy consumption has plateaued over the last couple of decades due to energy efficiency measures – better building standards, better insulation, more energy efficient HVAC equipment, etc. With the forecast electrification of transportation and the voracious energy appetite of AI data centers, we are at an important upward inflection in energy consumption. The world does not have enough energy generation capacity to meet this expected demand growth.
Over the past several months, there has been a sharp resurgence of interest in nuclear energy as a solution for this growing power need. Nuclear energy proponents highlight the technology’s strong attributes: emission-free, predictable, base load power generation with relatively cheap generation costs. Ironically, until now, the trend in the developed world has been to curb nuclear energy growth due to perceived dangers and disposal challenges with spent fuel. Indeed, in Japan and Europe, we have seen the shuttering of nuclear plants in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in 2011.
In the United States, there has been a dearth of new nuclear facility openings over the past several decades due not only to fears of a meltdown, but also due to the immense costs involved in nuclear plant construction. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, there are currently 54 nuclear power plants in the United States with 94 operating reactors. The newest nuclear plant in the U.S., the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant in Georgia, opened in 2023 after nearly 15 years of construction and at a cost of more than $30 billion. Prior to the opening of this plant, there hasn’t been a new nuclear plant brought on-line in the U.S. since the Three Mile Island accident in 1979. In fact, over the past 50 years, more than 20 nuclear power plants in the U.S. have been shut down.
Within the broad backdrop of increasing energy demand for the next several decades, the renewed interest in nuclear energy has been furthered by the development of newer nuclear technology in the form of small modular reactors (or “SMRs”) that promise to speed the time of development, control the cost run overruns that have plagued nuclear plant development over the past several decades and offer designs and safety mechanisms to prevent nuclear accidents. Indeed, to meet data center power needs, we have seen hyperscalers commit to nuclear energy:
- Microsoft signed an agreement with Constellation Energy to purchase power from a re-started Three Mile Island.
- Amazon made an investment in X-energy and joined a consortium of state public utilities to develop four SMRs.
- Google signed an agreement to purchase power from SMRs developed by Kairos Power.
- Meta recently announced a request for proposals for nuclear energy providers for new energy generation capacity in the U.S.
There are a number of publicly traded companies exposed to nuclear energy ranging from technology providers to engineering/construction firms to fuel suppliers. Some of the companies are established power plant servicers while others are startups offering new SMR designs. In general, we do believe that nuclear energy does offer a clean solution to the world’s growing energy needs, but view near term expectations for some companies as excessive. The vast majority of SMR designs have not yet been approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and many (probably most) of these startups will need to raise substantial, dilutive capital between now and eventual commercial launch. At best, we think this is a technology that will not be commercially viable until well into the next decade.
In the meantime, the growth in electric demand before 2030 will mean that the U.S. will need additional power generation in the near term. The only solution to this near-term power demand is the construction of utility scale solar plants combined with battery storage backup. This is the only proven technology that is cheap, and able to be constructed in less than two years. This solar energy advantage is underappreciated in the market, and we believe First Solar (FSLR) is the best positioned company for utility scale projects.
In the Essex Global Environmental Opportunities Strategy, until the pure SMR technologies are advanced further, we prefer to invest in established companies such as GE Vernova (ticker GEV) that generate revenues from servicing the existing fleet of nuclear plants (as well as gas turbines and wind turbines) and also are developing next generation SMR technology as well as renewable energy technologies.
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